Options Trading Newsletter - History Crumble - Issue #169 [Options Today -Position Updates]
History Crumble...
History Crumble
It takes but a single decision to unravel centuries of history. In today’s corporate landscape, no company is immune to the harsh choices that can lead to the closure of a location, factory, or even an entire organization. Having spent over two decades navigating the corporate world, I’ve witnessed the ebb and flow of corporate life, the exhilarating highs and the disheartening lows.
The most heart-wrenching moments occur when these decisions impact people close to you, those who’ve stood by your side through countless battles. Together, you’ve fought for survival and dreamed of better days ahead. Yet, in an instant, 250 livelihood and aspirations crumble as it was decided to shut down operations. Even being an institutions having histories spanning nearly two centuries are not spared. No legacy is invincible, no history too sacred for preservation.
A word of caution, Organizations exist to survive, and their self-preservation takes precedence. Only when they weather the storms can they extend care to their employees. But beware, the corporate chessboard is complex, with hidden agendas and political maneuvers. As long as you’re employed, a degree of insecurity persists. There are some ways to safeguard your future of course. Here are a few:-
Master Your Craft: Be exceptional at what you do. Whether you’re an engineer, marketer, or artist, hone your skills. If the day of reckoning arrives, your expertise will open doors elsewhere.
Adaptability: Cultivate a flexible skill set. Like a chameleon, be ready to adapt. Perhaps you’ll venture into a new field or start your own business. The ability to pivot is your shield against uncertainty. Trading is also a skill which I am personally adapting to.
Financial Resilience: Build a safety net. Savings, investments, and emergency funds are your lifelines. When the storm hits, you’ll weather it with greater ease.
To my dear friends facing upheaval, I wish you strength and greener pastures in the coming months. And to all who read this, ponder ways to secure your future and protect your family’s livelihood.
“The greatest thing in this world is not so much where we stand as in what direction we are moving - Johann Wolfgang”
SPX (5346)
What just happened? Good jobs report and whilst the market sold off initially on the higher than expected job numbers for the Non-Farm Payroll, SPX reached new all time high at 5375, just the direction where we said it will go in our last week’s issue, retest the previous all time high and we closed just 5 points above.
The market is still strong but do take care as all new highs reached last week has been sold off quickly and then regained again. So it’s not all bad that we play the volatiliy move between as it’s almost 30-40 points each time.
As we come into crucial data releases on Wednesday on CPI and thereafter the Fed Funds rate meeting, we could expect some slight pullback before the meeting into the 5300 area before any next move expected on SPX.
As is, last week ECB and BOC has cut 25 bps off to start off their rate cut cycle following SNB which was the first mover for Europe region. This week, we expect no rate cuts from the Fed which has a 99.4% probability that the rate stays put.
The CPI forecast for May is expected to be at 3.4% down 0.1% from last month. If we meet expectation or even better lower than expectation, expect that the market to rally to reach new highs once again. However, if the data is higher than expected, expect a short term selloff and watch for any support bounce at key levels. First support 5300 and second support 5200.
Trading range for the week is 5250 to 5450.
NDX (19000)
NDX has been quite bullish for the week, up 464 points (2.5%) for the week. A big part could also be driven by the Mag 7 which was also up 2.1% for the week.
NVDA itself is up 10.2% for the week in anticipation to the final split price on Friday, closing at $1200.88 which means the post split price of $120.09.
Considering the strong move of NDX last week and on Friday, it closed lower with a long wick, more selloff could happen pre CPI and FOMC due to the market uncertainty. We could see NDX trade back down to 18650 to 18800 level before CPI/FOMC.
Trading range for the week is between 18550 to 19550.
HANG SENG INDEX (18366)
HSI was up for the week but having some resistance at 18600 level. As Monday is an exchange holiday for the Dragon Boar Festival, we may see some light trading for the week and sideway movements. Keep a watch on 18077 the last swing low level if it provides support.
Daily 50 MA have moved up to 17800 which is also a lower end of the channel. Potential accumulation point here for longs if it hits.
OPTIONS TODAY - POSITION UPDATE IRON CONDOR ON MSFT
MSFT closed at $423.85 up $8.72 from last week. The trade is still at same level as last week, hardly moved. We will monitor the price action to stay within $445 and $395. There’s still $29.87 (7%) to the upper side and $28.85 (7%) to the lower side. So its rather in the middle of the range now.
OPTIONS TODAY - POSITION UPDATE ON BEAR CALL SPREAD ON SMH
Huge price movement last week. The stock is up a further $11.73. The trade is at a loss at $300. We will see if any pullback after NVDA stock split. If not we will either roll forward with a small debit or close the trade at a loss.
OPTIONS TODAY - LOSS ON LONG JAPANESE YEN FUTURES
It’s difficult to long JPY when the whole market seems to short it. The level of pain for BOJ should be at 160 level, close to the level when the last intervention happened. Anything below this gets loss every time Yen strengthens.
OPTIONS TODAY - POSITION UPDATE IRON CONDOR ON MICRO CRUDE OIL FUTURES - JUNE24
Crude oil had a huge selloff last week but prices have slowly recovered in the past days. The trade is now at a small loss. Crude oil is now trading around $75.83, slightly ITM on the short strike of $77. We will continue to monitor the trade. During the crash last week, we added some short put at $68 level into August expiry.
Checkout our Options Trading Newsletter Issue #160 for the trade analysis.
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