Hope…
“Hope”….We often find ourselves saying this word especially during challenging times. “I hope that…..” is a phrase we commonly use, but have you really thought of the true mechanics how “hope” really works? How to transform it from a mere wish into reality?
As we celebrate Christmas Day, this Santa Claus here would like to offer you a gift, a gift on how to materialise “Hope”
The first thing you need to recognise is Hope Never Stands Alone. It does not operate or work in isolation. If you simply hoped for something and leave it at that, you are essentially flipping a coin, leaving it to chance. This is where the saying “Hope is for the hopeless” find its truth.
To increase the chances of your hope becoming reality, action is required. After all, nothing is truly free. Even if you wanted to strike a lottery, you can’t win without getting a ticket for $1. If you hope to win the lottery without even possessing a ticket, how can that hope materialise? This is a simple analogy but powerful enough to emphasise the necessity of action in the pursuit of our aspirations.
Inspiration from A Galaxy Far, Far Away….
To inspire you coming into the new year, I encourage you to invest two hours in watching “Star Wars IV - A New Hope”. I promise you that after watching this, you will be revived and 2024 will move in a more positive way for you…This iconic film is not just a tale of good (Rebellion) versus evil (the Galactic Empire). It’s a story of how a small band of rebels, despite limited resources and firepower, triumphs over the mighty Galactic Empire and its fleet of imposing Star Destroyers.
In our real world, where we often feel small and our goals seems daunting, this narrative is a beacon of inspiration. It’s a vivid reminder that no aspirations is too big, no dream unattainable. It takes a well thought out plan, relentless hard work and unwavering persistence.
So if you find yourself without that metaphorical $1 lottery ticket in your hand today, remember, it’s never too late to take the first step of action.
This Christmas, I extend you this little piece of wisdom in the hope that it makes a difference in your life. Remember, hope is more than a passive desire, it’s an active pursuit, coupled with decisive action, guiding your path to success.
The Rebellion took a few shots before blasting the Death Star off space, so don’t worry about the misses because if you shoot enough, you are bound to hit it one day.
May this joyous season, fill you with the courage to turn hope into reality. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! ☺
"Hope is not lost today... it is found."
SPX (4754)
The Santa Claus Rally continues…
The SPX has gained 35 handles for the week. But it also reached a peak of 4779 during the week. It has been up 8 consecutive week and it seems that the institution funds and retailers will want no red week in sight. Although for a day, the huge drop in Wednesday seemed to have ended the game but a major comeback on Thursday just brushed off any possible retracement chances. I feel like the market situation now is really like “Fake it Till you Make it” situation because if you lose it in the last few days of the week, many fund managers would have lost their accounts for underperformance and likely get fired. So why not just buy everything regardless if it is overvalued and cross over to 2024 with big returns and whatever happens in 2024, there’s always 12 months to work on a recovery plan…
For me, I’m just making off some day trades selling the tops and looking for short opportunities in stocks which have gone up more than it should have. The market now is in extreme greed, FOMO has kicked in for late chasers, while those who came in early are likely offloading their bounties now. You may continue to long the market as it may continue to rally for some days or weeks, but do protect your profits by putting on some stops in your trades.
SPX is 64 points off its high and with low liquidity this we due to the holiday seasons, it may or may not hit it, depending who are the ones who is still working this week, Bulls or Bears….
Whatever it is, it may hit like a bungee jump and then spring off the other way.
VIX is also trading at its lowest at 13 now, but we start to see signs of it wanting to bounce up last week after weeks of red candles.
Trading range for the week is 4700 to 4800.
NDX (16777)
Hoorah….NDX made it back to the top after 109 weeks, which slightly over 2 years. It hit a high of 16860 before closing the week at 16777. 2021 November high is 16764 which means, last Friday’s closing is still above previous high. It’s a tough week to maintain above this level as we saw many rejections of NDX coming back below the high throughout the week. As said, it depends who is still working this week shall determine if NDX close the year above or below previous high.
The market expects a soft landing for the US market, where inflation is brough under control but not to the extent that it will cause the economy to go into a recession. This expectation is what drives the market up and the key measurement metrics going forward in 2024 will be to the unemployment and economic growth. Any significant increases in unemployment or slowing in economic growth is likely to bring the market down.
Watch closely, the unemployment rate and if it starts to slope up, it might be an early sign of a recession coming. The grey areas in the chart are years/periods which recession has happened and these are also time when unemployment rate chart slopes upwards.
The current unemployment rate stands at 3.7% while the GDP q/q is at 4.9%, slightly lower than forecasted of 5.2%. Some early signs, to note for what to expect going into 2024.
NDX support at 16,000 and lets see if it continues to be able to stay above 16,764 to close off the year.
Trading range for the week is between 16600 to 17000.
HANG SENG INDEX (16340)
Additional government intervention on the market on the gaming sector spooked HSI as bigtech like Tencent and Netease came tumbling more than 10% and 25% respectively.
Its not all bad that HSI goes lower as that gives us an opportunity to buy in and long HSI. Albeit, there are still some risk on the China market due to the sluggish economy, compared to the other parts of the world, China’s market in particular Hang Seng is one of the lowest now. Even Japan Nikkei has topped and US Market also sitting at or near top now. The reward and risk over the HSI is becoming more attractive but you will need a bit more holding power for it to turnaround.
We are watching the levels closely and if it hits 16,000 we will likely put in some long positions on HSI.
The lower support now at 16000 and resistance at 17000.
OPTIONS TODAY - TRADE STATUS ON SPY IRON CONDOR
We entered the trade when SPY was around 470 and now SPY is trading at 473. Our hypothesis is still valid as we expected SPY to continue to rally up and hit some form of resistance at a certain time before retracing back within the band of 455-490. Our current trade delta is -4, which is a perfect position as theta continue to decay.
We accidently sold a $4 width at the put side instead of $5, taking in less premium but that does not affect the trade so much.
We will continue to hold on to the trade and hopefully take in the winning trade into 2024 as expiry is on 19 January 2024.
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DISCLOSURES
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf
MYstyework is an Online Financial Literacy Educator and materials provided is solely by MYstylework and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. MYstylework, through its contents, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. MYstylework is not in the business of transacting securities trades or an investment adviser.