Bearer of bad news…
Happy days can be over in just a whiff when the bearer of bad news knocks on your door…
Regardless of how much efforts you put in your work, things can change quite fast and you would not even have time to react when you receive news that you had been layed off or your major customer is cutting off their contract with you. You would feel that earth had suddenly crashed on you…and it is the end of the world.
Call it circumstances, unlucky or even cruel, but this is the reality…not now but has always been. Most people’s lives are at someone’s else mercy. Unless you take control of it yourself, you are in control by others.
The worst thing is that you are not on the receiving side of the news, but the “bearer of bad news”. Technically, you are only the messenger but you carry a very heavy message and to get it through to the other side is really a difficult task. Well, that’s part of life, sometimes you become the bad guy.
So brace yourself, you might want to prepare an umbrella for rainy days ahead.
SPX (4137)
The market took a small pullback on CPI data release day buy gained strongly thereafter. CPI for March of 5% came slightly below expectation of 5.1%. The trending down of the CPI looks positive for the fight against inflation and the current expected Fed Rate hike in May is still skewed towards 25 bps hike.
The recent CME Fedwatch Tool which measures the market’s expectation of the next rate change has increased its probability of a +25 bps hike to 84% (last week it was only a 72% probability.
2As the market was already expecting this way back since last month, the further increase in probability would not move the market higher. From now till Fed rate Hike on 3 May, we would probably expect the market to move sideways a bit with 4200 as next level of resistance and 4000 as support.
With some pullback in prices in the next weeks before Fed meeting, that would be positive to neutral strategies on SPY. We put up this position 2 weeks ago and theta is just working its way as SPY is ranging.
The trading range for the week is between 4050 and 4200.
NDX (13079)
NDX has been moving sideways for over 2 weeks now, ranging from 12,900 to 13,200. The inability to break above 12,600 levels gives us the impression of weakness within the market and we may be off to a major correction down. So the next key decisive event which will move the market, whether up or down this range is earnings, which started last week positively with the bank earnings in particular JPM which still gave a bullish outlook.
When there is too much positivity in the markets, that’s the time we should be cautious.
Market is now in “Greed” mode and VIX has also drop to its lows of 17 last week. It would easily take 1-2 bad corporate earnings and bad forecast to put the market back into fear mode.
Our VIX trade pre-CPI did not fare well as expiry is 19 April, 2 more days as it is AM expiry, not that we were wrong in the trade, it was just a matter of time on when VIX would spike. Give a little more time, it would spike back above 20 for sure. In any case, such trades would also be a hedge to your overall portfolio as the run-up in market in past weeks would also compensate to this losing trade.
This week we expect some big names to announce earnings, NFLX, ASML, TSLA, LRCX, TSMC.
The trading range for the week is between 12900 and 13300.
HANG SENG INDEX (20782)
HSI inching up again for the week. Looking for it to retest 21000 level in the current week.
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Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf
MYstyework is an Online Financial Literacy Educator and materials provided is solely by MYstylework and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. MYstylework, through its contents, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. MYstylework is not in the business of transacting securities trades or an investment adviser.