Surprises
Life is full of surprises, some good, some bad and some unexpected.
When some event happens and gives you a surprise, we have no choice but respond accordingly. There are some events that your past experience would help in managing the event and the worst are those surprises that you totally do not expect to happen to you.
The important thing is always stay calm and assess the situation and never panic because when you panic, your mind will be clouded and you will not be able to handle the situation in the best manner possible.
Surprises can also create great memories and once in a while we also get bad surprises which turns into great ones that enrich your lives. So one thing which I learned from this is always expect the best in life and look forward to what will be coming from behind the door as not everything bad will stay bad and everything good that comes will stay forever as lasting memories.
"Life is a series of surprises, and the best ones are those we never saw coming."
SPX (4409)
SPX seems to have become a locomotive without brakes nowdays, breaking 4200, 4300 and now 4400! How would you feel, if you are on this train ride? Fully excited that you will reach your destination faster or a bit anxious that the speed is not normal and something is wrong?
It is okay for the market to go up, but too fast too strong is also going to be a problem because, the faster it goes up, the faster it will come down, especially if there are late entrants who FOMOed into the rally. For those who enjoyed this ride up, they would likely increased their stop level up and imagine if one day, there is a news that trigger a selloff event, it’s going to be heavy selling coming into market with these stops triggered and followed on by the new entrants which will start to panic. I’m not being a pessimist bear here but these are just events that can happen and we should plan our positions and portfolios appropriately. If it continues to go up, great, push higher your stops but never let your positions open for the market to take back your hard earned gains.
The market greed is on its extreme level and when the masses are greedy, it’s time to be a little careful as market likes to kill the greedy, remember this quote “Be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful”?
Last Friday, we start to see daily chop coming into the market again, with SPX up and down to high and low levels, intraday. There seems to be a bigger fight between the bears and bulls and when the bull’s starts to get fatigue, that’s when we see blood on the street. And remember, summer holidays its up and there is no real reason fund managers want to be stressed up during their holidays when their portfolios are up 20-30% or even higher first six months!
Let’s see if SPX holds 4400 this week and the next level for this locomotive to break is 4512. Lower support stands at 4200.
The trading range for the week is between 4325 and 4525.
NDX (15083)
For NDX, it seems that the locomotive is putting on some brakes as it bounced off previous highs of 15265 level. From the lows in October 22 to the highs in June 23, NDX has gained more than 45% and the 5-6 stocks leading it has gained between 40% to more than 100% with NVDA topping it at 192%.
I would start to look for signs of tops for these stocks together with a negative market catalyst to take the next opportunity. Maybe some past Traders Talk will give some perspective for signs of top. Watch this one around 35 mins on.
The CPI announced last week at 4% is lower than the peak of 9.1% in July 22 but 4% is still 2x from the Fed’s target of 2%. The Fed has again stood by sidelines and not willing to be committal on any firm stance and said there might be possible 2 more hikes this year if inflation stays high. Nevertheless, the hawkish views were not so convincing and as such, the market haven’t yet reacted negatively on such news, at least so far till last Friday. Market consensus only expect one more hike in June for the year. We will need to see how that changes over the next months.
Watch if NDX breaches 15265 level to reach higher, if not a pullback with possible support level at 13720.
The trading range for the week is between 14700 and 15700.
HANG SENG INDEX (20040)
HSI closed above 20,000. If it maintains above 20,000 for the week, likely to come back to recovery and form support on 20,000 once again.
OPTIONS TODAY - LIQUID GOLD 2
We are in the trade short put at 115 for $2 expiring 21 July, entered on 12 June.
Subsequently on 14 June, we sold a short call at $140 strike for $1.
After a week into trade, we’re up around 36%.
We would be okay if XOP continue to bounce between 115 to 140. XOP is trading now at $127.
We will continue to monitor the price action and see if we need to manage the trade.
How is your trade looking like?
TRADERS TALK
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DISCLOSURES
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf
MYstyework is an Online Financial Literacy Educator and materials provided is solely by MYstylework and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. MYstylework, through its contents, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. MYstylework is not in the business of transacting securities trades or an investment adviser.