Perfect score…
100th Issue?
There is this well known 21 Days Rule that states that of you could diligently do something straight on for 21 days, it becomes a habit and then you continue to do that for another 90 days and it becomes a lifestyle.
So does it count if we did it for 21 Weeks and then continue to do it for another 90 week? Although we are not there yet, just a close 11 more weeks, I guess what is important is that it takes commitment and persistence. It’s really the commitment to the readers who reads your newsletter week in week out. So I really thank everyone who takes time to go through what we write here weekly.
Would you agree that our Newsletter do keep you sane and motivated to continue moving forward despite the tough market conditions?
While we try to help, you are even helping us more to be committed on what we do here and become better together. Things are always not easy but if there are people going along with you, it becomes easier.
We thank you for supporting our cause and helping us achieve our 100th Issue…
SPX (4090)
SPX shaved 46 points or around 1% for the week. Not much but if you take the highest to lowest for the week, that’s 116 points of close to 3%. That wishy washy feeling of the SPX like we had in 2022 is coming back. It’s darn sickening feeling of market indecisiveness is what wrecks the mental state of many investors. At one side, January has been a relatively good month but once people step in to take a bite they are trapped 😂.
4100 was breached early February and SPX did not really managed to breach 4200 level, which remains as the next resistance up. With all eyes to Valentines Day, the market is not expected to make a big move until then. Let’s see where we are on inflation.
Peaking 9.1% in June 22, we are now at 6.5% and the expectation for January’s inflation is 6.3%. Will we get to this lower rate? A miss to the higher side will cause market havoc, just we on the alert.
This week’s earning watchlist:-
The trading range for the week is between 4050 and 4200.
NDX (12304)
NDX has a bearish weekly candle after it turned red for the week dropping 268 points or 2%+. The Fed Chairs words of “disinflation” did not keep the market up for long after.
The “AI”…”ChatGPT” hype did not also last long after the early rally of MSFT sizzled down. Others which had followed on this AI frenzy like Baidu’s Ernie also had even quicker downfall and poor souls that thought it will last more than a day got whacking buy the top sell the bottom in a week. AI (C3ai) also had their stock price almost trippled from early January also lost almost 1/3rd from highs. Worst in the AI run is GOOGL which shaved 10% ($100 billion) of its market capital with its “Bard” and being a GOOGL shareholder you would feel pissed at who the hell named that chatbot “Bard”??? It would have been better if it was just “Bart” as in Bart Simpson, Bart…
It’s just like the repeat of the “Metaverse” frenzy back in late 2021. Everything associated to Metaverse was a high flyer and look at what we have now? Name changes and that one lost $17 billion in pursuit of the new gem of the market.
Okay, lets come back to reality on what’s happening to Nasdaq. Failure to breach 12752 level and the runup of higher highs since early January is also broken. It’s much clearer if you run down to the lower 1 hour timeframe. The last spiral up was Thursday after the Fed Rate hike a day earlier. As it seems, lower lows are now starting to form on hourly chart hitting resistance of the 12752 level once again last Wednesday.
We expect NDX to congregate back between 11500 to 12000 level in the next week. If CPI is higher than expected, it would likely go below 12000 in a jiffy. The lowest so far is around 10700 level.
The trading range for the week is between 12100 and 13050.
TRADING OPTIONS ON HANG SENG INDEX (HSI) AND HANG SENG TECH INDEX (HSTECH)
Looks like it’s consolidating now between 21100 and 21600 and the support levels would be at 20,000 and resistance 22500. Now that the attention of F22 shooting down China balloons have gone to F22 shooting down UFOs, I think the market will give a breather to China for it to move back up. If it does another sideway movement for a week, a break above this range with a bullish pinbar confirmation would probably lead the market higher. There’s no certainty of course but we just play with probabilities and option strategies which give us an edge. In fact, we have already placed bull call spreads a week plus ago and those are not faring so good, but all it takes is a bit of time and Mr Market is giving us that time till end of the month.
Also, the February Bull Put Spreads are taking in water also from earlier situation of almost max gains on our position. But we are still okay as long as it don’t drop below 20000 level till expiry.
Our morning futures day trades with MHI the Mini Mang Seng Index. It’s just like MES, Mini S&P 500 with a smaller tick value. MHI trade tick value is HKD10 per tick as opposed to the full HSI of HKD50 per tick. Great for smaller account and lower risk as the HSI can really move few hundred ticks in a short span. This morning, HSI moved 200+ ticks up in slightly an hour plus.
QUICK BITES
This week we issued a Quick Bites. Head over to read what we issued.
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DISCLOSURES
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf
MYstyework is an Online Financial Literacy Educator and materials provided is solely by MYstylework and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. MYstylework, through its contents, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. MYstylework is not in the business of transacting securities trades or an investment adviser.
Thanks! Looking forward to it...😊
Congrats on the 100th issue! Great accomplishment. I'm looking forward to reading the next 100!