PATIENCE...
One of the things that is very difficult for most people to do is having patience. This is especially true when we had already been patient for very long and we still need to continue to be patient without being annoyed or anxious.
In the investing or trading world, I would say this is one of the important traits that would either make you or break you. There are many areas where we have to be patient in this arena.
There are multiple times where I had lost money being impatient in trading. One many examples are triggering a trade too fast before any trade entry signals comes in. Of course, there is a possibility for the trade to run before entry but chances are we can get caught by having a bad trade because of entering too fast. Why are we impatient? Because we are afraid of loosing a trade...because we are afraid of scared we won't make the profits.
Well my friends, one thing I found out is we need not chase for all these at all and be trigger happy just because we are afraid of not getting in fast enough. Why? Because the market is always there and there are 52 weeks to trade and thousands of stocks to chose from. We are never short of opportunities, missing one or a few trade will not break your account, however being impatient and taking the wrong decisions will surely do.
"To lose patience is to lose the battle" Mahatma Gandhi
SPX
SPX closed at 4204, at our lower range level last week down by 2.88% or 125 points for the week. However, the VIX has came down from a high of 37 to around the 30 levels. Even as we saw SPX coming down last Friday, VIX dipped below 30 but closed higher at the end of the day as the market sold off. However, we still see that the index is holding up very strongly at these levels.
The current market continue to be volatile, buoyed by the geopolitical tensions in Europe which has lasted over 2 weeks now. Although, SPX has already entered into a mid term down trend as the 50 MA crossed down over 150 MA and 150 MA is slightly sloping downwards, any change in the geopolitical issue will quickly turnaround the market very fast, and I would say very fast and sharp. As said, many times during our Traders Talk, any longer term trade may be risky if we do not get the direction right and shorter trades would tend to perform better during this time. The current trading pattern in play is entry on weakness and exit on strength.
Red's mostly for the week apart from energy. Even for Amazon its merely catching up with the stock split announcement.
ES S&P Mini Futures opened up 10 points, lets see this week if it holds up or move down to bearish momentum.
NDX
NDX haven't broken out of the bearish market momentum as the current level of 13301 is slightly below 20% negative mark from its high. NDX closed down 289 points (2.13%) last Friday and down 536 points (3.87%) for the week.
Even heavyweights like AAPL got pounded and could not withstand the downward pressure toward the weekend, losing 3.79 points (2.39%) at close Friday. AMZN could not continue the upswing since announcing its stock split program, going back into red on Friday. Perhaps, it may suffer the same fate as GOOGL which lost all of its gain since announcing the stock split.
NDX broke down the 13642 support and next level to watch is 13065. Once this is broken, there is likely to be a bit more selloff coming before it finds the next bottom.
As said earlier, VIX is now close to 30 levels and if we don't see this going down below 30, chances are, the recovery won't come so fast and may continue trending down as market is still uncertain and trending to bearish momentum.
INVESTING & TRADE BUYIN...
Last week, we put in a buy in for Visa at 190 level. We covered this also during our Traders Talk on Tuesday 8 March.
This was the previous support level back in early December 2021.
Covid low in 2020 was around 133, which is another 30% down and during that time Visa dropped around the same percentage as the market had. This time round V seems to be more oversold than the market and assuming market picks up, the recovery should be much faster.
Besides that we also placed a Bull Put Spread at -185P/+180P for $1.15 credit, looking to exit at 50% profit target. The trade was placed after the bounce up on Wednesday, hence a higher entry price. If market trends up for 2-3 days, we should be able to reach the profit target quickly.
TRADERS TALK
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We had a great topic and so much insight on trading was given out.
Listen to Traders Talk Series 38 if you have not done so. View Past Traders Talk
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