Options Trading Newsletter - Issue #192 - Options Today - Winner Bull Put Spread on MCD
Showdown...
Showdown…
Last week we saw Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul in the boxing ring. On the other side of the financial ring we saw J.Powell vs Trump, where literally J.Powel blew Trump off by sending the market back to the “RED”… You win on one red and lose the other red…
It is somewhat abusive that such show of powers make many people cry with their hard earned profits suddenly evaporate…but that is the reality in the financial markets. Besides this, the nomination of faces into governmental positions also shook the market up and down… Elon Musk setting up DOGE department to improve government efficiency took DOGE up while appointment of RFK as health secretary took the healthcare stocks down…
Continue to expect some votality but do look for opportunities as some of these moves are overly done most of the time on media hype and instillation of excessive fear…
ES (5896)
ES loss 128 points (2.1%) last week, almost half of the election week rally was gone. ES could not break the above the trendline and the increased inflation and statements that the Fed was not in a hurry to cut rates have sparked a selloff and pushed down the probability of a December rate cut now to only 55% from 90% a week earlier.
Short term, we may still see some weakness in the ES and possible to move towards 5800 level or daily 50 Moving Average. Unemployment claims this Thursday and if the data is lower than forecast, that could give further downside pressure on the market. ie. economy is still strong and no rush for further cuts so fast…
Trading range for the week is 5850 to 5950.
NQ (20493)
NQ could not hold above the previous high at 20,983 and it was a +500 points down move below this level… we did warn to lock in profits as NQ was struggling for days to keep up…
Anyway, we could now see some recovery after the huge move down but NQ may continue to trade lower back to the range between 20,000 to 20,600 (green box range).
Nothing much this week apart from NVDA earnings on 20th. and unemployment on Thursday. Unless, the numbers break analyst expectation and Jensen Hwang paints another rosy picture on how great Blackwell and its other GPU will be, NVDA should go back to our $132 target… recall our earlier NVDA Iron Condor, we set this as our lower target…, unfortunately we ran out of time and the trade expired at a loss… lets see if it hits or create new highs post earnings…
Trading range for the week is between 204150 to 20750.
HANG SENG INDEX (19426)
Extremely bearish week for HSI after the pre-close selloff the previous week’s Friday (8 Nov) when the stimulus meeting trade sizzled with no major catalyst to make the market excited. There were also little resistance when HSI just passed down 20,000 level and could likely range again below 20,000 level for a bit…
HSI found support at the 61,8% Fibonacci at 19,316 and bounced above from here. It had resistance now at close to 19,800 level and could not break despite touching several times.
Watch again the 20,000 level and if it breaks above, 21,200 would be the next target up.
OPTIONS TODAY - CLOSED TRADE UPDATE BULL PUT SPREAD ON MCD
MCD hit our 50% target mark in just a week and we exited the trade last Monday, just before it slid back to the 200 levels in the next days…
As said, if the move into profits is quick and fast above 20% of max profits, it is a good idea to exit the trade as too strong moves may not sustain long. Further, we entered the trade when there was a huge move down and the bounce was also strong up.
As we saw support back at 200 level, we did add in new positions using synthetic stock strategy last Friday. We did a 295C/290P trade expiring 6 December. We did similar synthetic earlier when it hit 200 and exited on move up and now picking it up again.
There is no love in sticking to one trade all the time but I’m loving it making re-entries after taking profit.
OPTIONS TODAY - LOSS UPDATE IMBALANCE IRON CONDOR NVDA
We were out of time, just when NVDA was showing weakness… well in options, the enemy is always ‘time’. As you see, it is coming to our target of below 132 level…
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