Oil Dump…
Oil took a dump today, just because no Iranian oil facility was attacked over the weekend. Seriously? I don’t buy the mainstream media to overhype the risk before it happens to pump oil up and dump when the bombs don’t hit… just wait another 2 days to see what new story they play and profit from other people’s misery….
ES (5846)
ES traded lower by 60 points for the week and showing some sign of weakness. ES has moved back down towards the 21 Daily Moving Average and closed the week just slightly above. If it does not hold above this week, we could see ES going lower towards 5750-5800 level.
VIX has also traded higher by 12% over the week, increasing volatility closing into election week. We anticipate it could continue going up and as such entered into some VIX options as a hedge when the market was rallying on Friday, just before the selldown. Remember, when market is volatile and uncertain, VIX tend to go higher. Last Saturday, Israel/Iran further escalated and we could see it continuing into this week with more bomb strikes both side.
Trading range for the week is 5750 to 5900.
NQ (20498)
NQ closed the week relatively unchanged, up +15 points only. But the intra week range was 20,079-20707, more than 600 points +3% range. As far as we see it, it is still ranging within the green box levels 20,000 to 20,600. On Friday, it rallied strongly to a high of 20,707 before selling off and could not maintain the upmove.
For now until elections uncertainty is over, the market could likely sell the rallies. Strong rallies above 300 points within a day should be watched closely for signs of weakness for reversals. NQ opened up strongly on Monday as no strikes by Israel towards oil facilities of Iran which could confine the current conflict within the middle east rather than affecting global markets through oil prices. Oil prices took a tumble by more than 5% also on opening. Nevertheless, we should still watch closely the higher levels such as last week high of 20,707 as resistance levels in case market rally higher.
The week before it was NVDA holding up the market and last week, TSLA joined it as it was up 22% post earnings. Recall earlier it sold off 12+% after the robo taxi and new products events and now, it is back up 22%. Watch closely if TSLA can continue to sustain the big jump in the next days.
NVDA also went on a 7 weeks rally going above previous high of $140.76. Keep a tight watch if it can maintain above this level. If it can’t hold, it could likely trade back down to $132 to $123 levels.
MAG 7 is closing to its previous high of $310. If it continue to go up, we need to be a bit careful of the resistance. Further, next week is election week and high chance of profit taking for risk off, if it hits that level.
However, not all Mag & has hit it’s previous high. TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, META is close or at previous high while GOOGL and MSFT is lagging. AMZN is trying to catch up. As earnings for the remaining 6 is coming, it could easily do comebacks or reach new highs if the earnings is good or future expectation is still positive. Let’s see as all except NVDA is releasing earnings this week. Make or break MAG 7 week!
Trading range for the week is between 20150 to 21050.
HANG SENG INDEX (20590)
Same trading play, add on deep pullback and sell on big pump up. HSI has been trading sideways for the week, ranging lows of 20,380 to high of 20,942. We have just traded the same without keeping any open positions even across days, latest closing off the positions on the night session. If it goes lower than 20,500, we will take more long positions. But as we see it, there might be little chance for good buys. The train seems to have finished accumulation and leaving station soon. Let’s see if we can still get lucky.
But we are slowly building long term positions on China using iShares Core Hang Seng ETF (3115) on the Hang Seng market that tracks the HSI Index. First position was at $74.50 today.
OPTIONS TODAY - TRADE UPDATE JADE LIZARD ON TLT
TLT continue to decline last week as yield spiked again. But the long term rates seem to be hitting resistance and TLT downhill journey could have some saviour, next support at $91.50. Our short put is at $90 still room to play before it hits.
OPTIONS TODAY - UPDATE IMBALANCE IRON CONDOR NVDA
We are now left only with the Bear Call Spread as we exited the Bull Put Spread last week. NVDA is now at its previous high and seem to be facing some headwinds. If market takes a dump with bad earnings in the MAG 7, that could work well for our trade as we will look to exit as soon as we see some profits on the remaining Bear Call Spread. We still have 18 days for the trade to run but NVDA could be interesting buys for some people on dips, so any opportunity that comes, we have to take it to exit quick.
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