Options Trading Newsletter - Mail To Future - Issue #164 [Options Today - Position Updates]
Mail To Future
In an era where digital communication reigns supremacy, the quaint charm of traditional snail mail often goes unnoticed. I fondly recall a time when the concept of a “Pen pal” bridged distances, connecting us internationally through handwritten letters. It was a remarkable feeling to be accepted by an overseas friend, to exchange thoughts on paper, and to collect the stamps that journeyed across the globe.
Fast forward 40 years, and the landscape of communication has drastically shifted. The rarity of personal letters has been replaced by the ubiquity of digital messages. Nowadays, the mail we receive is often impersonal—reminders from banks about mortgages or credit card bills, far from the eagerly anticipated correspondence of yesteryear.
Yet, I recently embarked on a unique postal adventure, sending a snail mail 10 years into the future via China Post, dated 1 May 2034. While it’s not time travel in the literal sense, the anticipation of receiving this letter a decade later is palpable. It’s a time capsule of sorts, one that will prompt reflection on the changes the world has undergone and the person I’ve become.
This act of sending a letter to my future self has led me to ponder life’s trajectories—where will I be in terms of relationships, finances, and spiritual well-being? Will the bonds with family and friends have strengthened? Will my financial situation have improved, or better yet, will I have achieved financial freedom? Spiritually, will I find myself at peace and content?
Indeed, a decade may seem like a fleeting moment, yet its arrival is inevitable. We don’t have an infinite number of these ‘10-year blocks’ to experiment with. The years between our 30s and 50s are pivotal; they are the foundation for the life we wish to lead post-50. If we fail to capitalize on this crucial period, the journey ahead may be less than desirable.
Therefore, it’s essential to act when necessary, to enjoy life when the opportunity presents itself, and not to live with regrets of what could have been. After all, the future arrives one day at a time, and it’s up to us to make each day count.
“Time is relative, its only worth depends upon what we do as it is passing - Albert Einstein”
SPX (5127)
SPX rebounded off strongly the following day after FOMC and went even higher after AAPL’s earnings and the nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate. So what just really happened last week?
On FOMC, rates maintained as expected and future rate cuts will depend of forthcoming data on inflation and economy.
Nonfarm payroll reduced as compared to forecast, 175,000 vs 238,000 and the unemployment rate was also higher 3.9% vs 3.6%. This although negative, the market went up on news because bad employment and bad economy means possibility of an earlier rate cut.
Nothing great coming out from AAPL earnings apart from the $110 billion buyback and additions of AI into its earnings report. Anyway, that is good enough to bring AAPL up 14% up for the week.
For now, SPX hit 50 MA and tested some resistance but should break and retest a higher level at 5200 this week. Nothing much on the calendar this week apart from earnings continuation and some Fed Members speaking.
Trading range for the week is 4900 to 5150.
NDX (17890)
Similar to SPX. NDX got close to 50 MA and got rejected. After the last gap up on Friday, we are again uncertain of its short term direction. For now, we are keeping a slight bullish short term as the probability of a rate cut this year has improved to 2 from one earlier.
Look at 18200 resistance and 17400 support levels.
Trading range for the week is between 17500 to 18300.
HANG SENG INDEX (18475)
Looks like everybody was jumping the wagon to the East last week before the FOMC. There was not even a chance for any retracement buyin and HSI jumped straight up to break back above 18000 level closing strongly at 18475 last week.
As we said, any movement back up for HSI will be quick and fast as seen in the post COVID recovery in Oct 22.
HSI could retest 19000 level soon and any retracement for us is a buyin opportunity, but ensure no leverage used as could potentially need a bit of time knowing China.
OPTIONS TODAY - UPDATE ON LONG JAPANESE YEN FUTURES
YEN appreciated strongly last week after a suspected intervention by BOJ to stop the YEN from continue spiraling downwards. That gave YEN futures a boost up in the past days. The currency is now retracing slightly after the move and hopefully not back down where it bottomed at 0.00628 last week.
Our trade had recovered a bit of its losses. Let’s see in the coming weeks how it turn around to comeback to our profit zoe above 0.0065 level.
OPTIONS TODAY - TRADE UPDATE IRON CONDOR ON MICRO CRUDE OIL FUTURES - JUNE24
Oil futures went down 6-7% last, close to testing our put leg at $77. In any case, we still have time on the trade and there would be plenty of support at levels below especially the 200 MA level could also provide a strong support albeit below of $77 strike.
Checkout our Options Trading Newsletter Issue #160 for the trade analysis.
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