Struggles…
Who among us doesn't face struggles in life? Indeed, the journey of life is punctuated with challenges, regardless of one's background. While some might argue that those born with a 'silver spoon' are exempt from hardships, it's worth noting that struggles come in various forms and intensities. Importantly, these struggles, both big and small, play a crucial role in shaping our character.
Consider the journey of life, beginning even before our first breath. The struggle commences with childbirth, a strenuous moment for both mother and child. As infants, we grapple with basic movements, learning to crawl and eventually walk, each step a triumph over physical limitations. This pattern of overcoming hurdles continues through our educational years, where academic and social challenges test our resilience. Entering adulthood, we encounter the complexities of professional life and perhaps parenthood, each stage bringing its unique set of struggles.
At the heart of these experiences lies a powerful truth, struggles are instrumental in building character. They mold our resilience, teach us perseverance, and often lead to personal growth. It's essential to recognize that struggle and suffering, while intertwined, are not synonymous. Struggle is the effort we put in when facing challenges, whereas suffering often implies a sense of helplessness and despair. Understanding this distinction is crucial.
Many of us undergo both struggle and suffering, yet it is those who grasp the essence of these experiences who often emerge successful. A child learning to walk doesn't comprehend the concept of 'failure', their mindset is untainted by the fear of not succeeding. This innate resilience diminishes as we age, clouded by societal notions that equate effort with the possibility of failure. But what if we could rekindle that childlike determination?
The inevitability of struggle and suffering in life is a truth we must accept. The key lies in how we approach these challenges. By focusing on the purpose behind our struggles, whether it's studying extra hours for an exam or putting in additional effort at work, we can find meaning in these experiences. It's not just about enduring hardship, it's about understanding the 'why' behind it. This mindset shift can transform our struggles into steps towards success. I am not exempt from such struggles, even as a successful professional having a great career, I had to put in additional effort struggling to learn how to trade and read the markets, often times losing sleep and leisure time, but are the rewards worth the struggles? You bet….
Remember, success and achievement come with their price tags. Embrace the struggles, pay the price of perseverance, and the rewards will be yours to reap. Don't shy away from challenges or delay confronting them. Instead, face them head-on, keeping your goals in sight. By doing so, you'll not only overcome these struggles but also emerge stronger, wiser, and more resilient.
In conclusion, the struggles of life, inevitable as they are, need not be journeys of suffering. They are opportunities to build character, to learn, and to grow. So, as we navigate our paths, let's embrace our struggles, remembering that within them lie the seeds of our greatest successes.
"Pain is inevitable, suffering is optional" - Buddha
SPX (4839)
Well, you got to hand it to the market… they just ain’t giving up to set record highs. Never fails over the years, it is just a matter of when? It took them 16 months to come back to this level. This is if you held up to SPY ETF, you would have be back to square one in 16 months.
The market seems to be rejoicing at good news nowdays, great retail sales, great addition to employment. lower unemployment claims and lower unemployment rate. Not to forget at one point in time in 2022, good news was bad for the market. What changed? Nothing has changed, greed always follows in panic. People tend to forget, things that they don’t want to see, they deny it.
If you have not noticed, the good news has already caused a lower probability of a rate cut in March to now 46%, at one point it was well over 90% beginning of the year. There is no real reason for rate cuts when everything is going so well. That wakeup call may come soon when they realise something is amiss. What will be the triggering event, no one knows, but I am sure it will come at one point, so continue to enjoy the run while it’s there, just be cautious and don’t go all in…
So far, earnings after a dismay kickoff for some banks, were back in action last week focusing on TSMC splendid results, which pushed the tech sector up especially chip related stocks. Another event to be happy about, AMD rallied another 17% up!
Will the bullish momentum continue? Well, lets see how this weeks earnings playout. This week is big as many major earnings throughout the week.
This week more on unemployment claim and GDP on Thursday.
Trading range for the week is 4750 to 4900.
NDX (17314)
Another 2.8% up for the week and back in momentum 2nd week in now after one week of break. The earnings on tech should follow through this week at least on the semiconductor segment as ASML, LAM and INTC is scheduled on Wednesday and Thursday.
AAPL has gone ballistic over the upcoming vision pro headset in early February? Again an overhyped product perhaps. Will you buy a VR Headset for USD3500? Watching the top $200 for any resistance….
Any support on NDX will be at 16700, its previous high.
Trading range for the week is between 16800 to 17800.
HANG SENG INDEX (15308)
The continued dismay in China business data releases continues to spook the market from more selldown and exits. Is this good or bad? As more people exit, means that there is significant pain in the market and closer towards capitulation. I recall also in 2022, I was in so much pain on China stocks that I had to cut out the arm and limb and immediately days after that it capitulated and rallied like crazy….
There are just too many other beautiful girls around to choose for now. But when the girls runs out, they will come back to the one girl which will give value. Valuations for Chinese stocks are dirt cheap.
Technical wise, it is coming down to the last support level of previous low of 14597. I suppose many traders are also eying to buy in at this level. But be prepared to hold for longer.
OPTIONS TODAY - TRADE STATUS ON SPY IRON CONDOR
One more week and SPY is starting to test the upper limit. The short call spread is starting to make losses while the bull put spread is almost at max profits. Overall, the trade is still positive, albeit much lower than last week. If we see some red days in SPY, the trade should go back quickly to max profit towards the weekend.
OPTIONS TODAY - TRADE STATUS ON MICRO CRUDE OIL FUTURES IRON CONDOR
Our trade filled at $0.93 and currently trades at $0.61. Oil is still bouncing along the iron condor band.
OPTIONS TODAY - POOR MAN’S COVERED CALL ON XLU
Because of the shift in interest cut expectation, XLU has been selling off and now trades at $60.8. As a result, the trade has gone into losses but we have rolled the calls down for more premiums. We have moved the short call strike to $60 after 2 rolls down and this has reduced the total trade cost significantly.
The trade has now been turned from a Diagonal to a Calendar. Once the short call expires OTM, we can sell it again for more premium. Since, XLU has turned bearish, we can capitalise on this by rolling down into an ITM short call to maximise premium. However, XLU still needs to recover in price over time to compensate for the loss we made on the long call. Since, we have over 10 months to see a price reversion, as long as we can continue to earn a premium, it’s not too bad if XLU move sideways at or around $60s level. (As long as the Fedwatch probability of rate decrease does not increase, XLU will remain bearish)
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DISCLOSURES
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf
MYstyework is an Online Financial Literacy Educator and materials provided is solely by MYstylework and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. MYstylework, through its contents, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. MYstylework is not in the business of transacting securities trades or an investment adviser.