Weekly newsletter of MYstylework - Issue #77
TIME CLOCK
TIME CLOCK....
After 2 weeks in Europe, my body time clock needs readjustment. Total end to end travel back this round took longer around 28 hours. I was knocked off 9pm yesterday and woke up at 11pm, wide awake until around 2am. This morning, my body time clock should readjust back to normal. I think that's ok considering a lapse of almost 3 years travelling to a different timezone. I recall at a peak just years ago, I travelled to Europe 7 times in a year! So I guess, I am practically used to these kind of readjustments. Some people just can't do it and takes days to come back to normal zones.
As we speak about time clock, out body time clock ticks by the day as long as we are still breathing. We need to take care of it while we still can do adjustments. During this trip, the food intake of full 3 meals a day was really too much that I gained at least 3-4kg and the sight of the round belly really saddens me. One day dinner intake here was like a week's dinner portion at home. It's just how crazy it is during travels, not to say also a big hole in the pocket.
It's now back to discipline diet and the exercise regime. I'll need to shave those pounds off quick to avoid them sticking. It's okay once in a while to divert from your regime to do different things but make sure you come back to norm quick!
SPX - 3924
The bears won't budge for the whole week. Most days opened higher but sold down shortly. Even for last Friday, we saw a bounce back to 50 MA but failed short to breach it and ended the week at the low level of 3900.
With such price action, it may be likely that the bears will push it down further to 3700 before the next Fed Fund Rate hike on 21 September. Even if it doesn't the 50 MA will still stand for a strong resistance level.
Monday, the market is closed for Labour Day holidays. Let's see where the market goes on Tuesday.
Trading range for the week is between 3800 and 4000.
NDX - 12098
It's a third consecutive week of decline for NDX. This week another 4% or 506 points shaved off. Although, we hoped for a slight rebound early part of the week, it did not happen and it went down to the first retrace level of 12000 points. Only intradays it was up mostly on openings and then heavy sell downs throughout the days.
Risk on will likely continue with heavy intraday movements right up till the next rate announcement on 21 September.
We expect this week's range to be at 11650 to 12450. Take opportunity on short rallies intradays as we do not expect NDX to breach 50 MA resistance so soon. If it does, I would still be skeptical it could hold for long till the Fed rate announcement.
NEUTRAL IS OKAY...
Last week, we showed you guys who to call when you want to get a "Protection Squad". I hope you had called them for help as if you did, you could have been quite profitable for the week.
This week, we will not call them again and move to a new structure of staying neutral. If you look at the SPX weekly, we are sitting at 61.8% fibonacci retracement. This is also a strong support level, where SPX can rebounce. However, market sentiment is still negative with the next Fed Fund Rate hike, so it may also hover around this level or even go down further. The spike in VIX to 25 level also indicates higher market risk on.
The thing is that the VIX will not stay elevated for long and the lowest for past 6 months is at 19 and highest was 37. So roughly we are also around middle as 37 highs was peaks for no longer than a day and average we would be looking at 31/32 highs.
With high VIX, premiums would also be good and neutral plays are not too bad, a downside protection in case the market goes down further and an upside opportunity if it hits bottom and rebounce.
A SPY Iron Condor expiry 21 Oct is a great Neutral trade for now. 20 Delta strikes gives 80% probability with risking $325 for $175 profit, seems too good to be true, but recheck when market opens.. we need to take at least 1/3 premium for the spread width, not always we can structure such kind for SPY at this delta, only when VIX is elevated.
SPY Iron Condor, set-up of strikes just at previous lows and almost to previous highs. Great protection for further downside and possibility of rebounce before Fed Fund rate hike in the next 2 weeks.
Tik Tok Videos
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What to expect for this week's market.. #optionstrading #optionsstrategies — www.tiktok.com TikTok video from mystylework.trade (@mystylework.trade): "What to expect for this week's market.. #optionstrading #optionsstrategies". SPX down 141 points (3.37%) last Friday after J.Powell speech | Monday another 27 points drop | but we see some slight support at 4000 level above daily 50 MA | .... Change My Mind.
Option Trade on JD - watchlist at last Traders Talk on 9 Aug. Closed today $922 profit 🤑 #optiontrading #tradingstrategy — www.tiktok.com TikTok video from mystylework.trade (@mystylework.trade): "Option Trade on JD - watchlist at last Traders Talk on 9 Aug. Closed today $922 profit 🤑 #optiontrading #tradingstrategy". Option Trade JD covered potential trade during 9 Aug Traders Talk Entry 9 Aug Exit 26 Aug Profit $922 | watch till end to see the trade we did 😉 | Option Trades Adjustments - Based on Price Actions | .... YOU'RE MY SUNSHINE.
Hawkish remarks by J Powell crushed the market - pullback expected until Next FOMC in Sept 21. Watch for key points raised #optionstrading #optionsstrategies — www.tiktok.com TikTok video from mystylework.trade (@mystylework.trade): "Hawkish remarks by J Powell crushed the market - pullback expected until Next FOMC in Sept 21. Watch for key points raised #optionstrading #optionsstrategies". Key Points For Traders | Here's what JP said.. | > rates will go up until inflation is down to 2% | .... Flip through.
TRADERS TALK
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DISCLOSURES
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before deciding to invest in options: https://www.theocc.com/components/docs/riskstoc.pdf
MYstyework is an Online Financial Literacy Educator and materials provided is solely by MYstylework and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. MYstylework, through its contents, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. MYstylework is not in the business of transacting securities trades or an investment adviser.